I was reading the paper today (in case you are wondering, I read the New York Times because I feel like USA today has way too many pictures and is more likely to include headlines that read, "America lays the smack down in ___!" Not exactly how I like my news) when I noticed and read two articles that were so obviously contradictory to one another that I was shocked (and a little amused admittedly) to see them within the same newspaper! The first one on the front page was rather optimistic (but ultimately controverting as these things have proven to be) and the other, the main headline of the business section, radically opposite and much more defeatist in its approach (sadly, also much closer to the truth). The two headlines read, "Poll Finds Brightening Outlook on U.S. Economy," and "After Recession, Recovery Will Take Years." The articles proved to be less counterfactual then their headlines would initially suggest but I thought that when juxtaposed they painted a pretty clear image of the current economic situation and peoples perception of said recession. The two facts that these articles discuss throughout are undoubtably facts; you can't really argue that, but it's the third fact that is inadvertently stated that I find interesting. Ceterus paribus, it would take years for the economy to recover from the point it is at now, and all signs are obviously pointing towards further declines; this is what the second article is saying essentially. The funny thing is that despite this inevitability, the first article, and the pole that it used for its data, suggests that people are feeling 39% more confidant that the economy is getting better, or at least heading in the right direction. Huh? Is down the right direction? The facts state that the economy is bad, getting worse, and will be bad for a long time. People are increasingly optimistic . . . oh I get it!I have a feeling that this means one of two things:
a) people are in love with Barack Obama and are confusing their approval of him with the improvement of the economy. He instills hope and inspires people in a manner unseen in years, combine this with his immediate action (assembling the economics version of the avengers headed by the Secretary of the Treasury himself Timothy Geithner, and pumping out the current stimulus package within his first couple months in office) and you can't be surprised that people are at least feeling a little better. But with many of Americas staple companies shutting their doors for good, housing foreclosures doubling (annually as it's become), and unemployment (including my own parents) increasing, how can optimism even exist in this disaster? Let alone a 39% increase. GOBAMA I suppose.
b) the recession hasn't effected them (yet)
c) nobody really knows what the fuck is going on and are assuming the reverse of Newton's law of gravity. Not always the case, especially if this recession is anything like the depression it's projected to be. What goes down, must come up? Not exactly.
d) This became a lot more about economics and politics than I wanted it to be but I get pretty pissed off when my own livelihood, although suspended in this microcosm fantasy world of college, is affected. My parents and my family are struggling. They're struggling hard. So thanks a lot Fannie Mae, hey speaking of which, can I get a Sub-Prime Mortgage on my dorm room? Ya, don't worry, it's got a AAA security rating. Also thanks to everyones piss poor business models. Proof that maximizing profits isn't always worth it (especially when you are maximizing risk). Finally, a big FUCK YOU to Bernie Madoff. You are the scum of the earth asshole.
You are just Mr. Blogger these days. I am loving it. Keep it up!
Brian, I had to google whatever Latin term you used up there. Kudos. And I couldn't agree more with you on all of this. What a debacle!
haha ya, my econ teacher uses it all the time so in the spirit of the subject i decided to through it out there.